Odds first, crowd second
Slot machines are games of chance with a built-in house edge. Over time they return less than players stake, most players lose money, and no strategy, system or timing changes the odds. Nobody should gamble money they cannot afford to lose. Rules and age limits differ by country.
This article is about a different kind of influence than the games’ own sounds and graphics: the influence of other people. Seeing someone else play, win or walk away can change what you decide to do, even though it tells you nothing about your own chances.
What social proof means
Social proof is a general idea from psychology: when people are unsure what to do, they often treat the behavior of others as a guide. Busy restaurants look more appealing than empty ones, and a product with many reviews can seem safer than one with none. The shortcut is often sensible in daily life, because crowds frequently do reflect quality or safety.
It breaks down in games of chance. A crowd around a machine cannot tell you anything about what the next spin will do, because that outcome is set by random number generators and is independent of who has played before.
Where it shows up
In a venue, social proof can come from several sources.
- A person playing for a long time. Observers may assume a machine is “paying” or will soon.
- Visible celebrations. Cheering, lights and sounds from nearby machines are noticeable, while quiet losses are not.
- Someone leaving a machine. Some people believe the next player has an advantage because the previous one “loosened it up,” which is a version of the gamblers fallacy.
- Winner displays. Screens or signs that highlight recent big results show the successes and omit the far larger number of players who did not win.
Online and social-style games add other forms: chat windows, leaderboards, notices that another player has just won, and messages about how many players are currently online. Players interested in the topic from the perspective of games that imitate gambling may also like to read about social casino games, where these features are common.
Why it is misleading
There are a few reasons that other people’s results are poor evidence.
Survivorship in what you see. Wins are announced and noticed. Losses are not. If a hundred people play and two win noisily, an onlooker sees two celebrations and no one else. It can look as if winning is common, when the missing information is the people who quietly left.
Small samples. Watching a few spins, or a few players, tells you very little. Short runs are dominated by chance, and patterns that appear in them are usually coincidence. The tendency to see patterns in small amounts of random data is well documented, and small samples are explained elsewhere on this site.
Independence. Each spin is a fresh draw. A machine that paid a lot to the previous player is no more or less likely to pay you. A machine that has not paid in a while is not “due.”
Selective attention. People tend to remember when following a crowd seemed to work and to forget when it did not.
The pressure to join in
Social proof also works on comfort and belonging. Playing at a machine alongside friends, matching their stakes, or staying because the group is staying can make it harder to leave. Peer pressure can be gentle and still push spending beyond what a person planned. A person who intends to spend a set amount may find it easy to stretch the limit when everyone around them is having a good time.
Group settings also change the way results are described. People tend to talk about their wins and skip their losses, so the stories shared in a group are skewed toward success. Hearing them makes gambling appear more profitable than it is.
Staying independent
- Decide before you arrive. Choose a spending limit and a time limit at home, not at the machine.
- Treat other people’s wins as entertainment, not information. They carry no signal about the game you are playing.
- Ignore claims about hot or cold machines. A machine’s settings do not shift in response to who has been sitting there.
- Be honest in group settings. Telling friends your limit in advance can make it easier to keep, and to leave when you reach it.
- Do not chase. Seeing someone else win right after you lose can be painful, but playing on to match it is a common route to larger losses.
- Notice who benefits from the story. Cheering, announcements and displays are part of the atmosphere. They are not a guide to your odds.
If you or someone close to you is gambling more than intended, or feels pressure to keep up with others, a national problem-gambling helpline or local health service can offer confidential support.